Beyond the USDA Beef Industry Plan: How Deregulation Could Solve America’s Beef Crisis

The USDA confirmed that the United States will quadruple imports of Argentine beef — a move that has infuriated ranchers from Texas to Montana.

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Nov 07, 2025

The “Magic” That Isn’t

Just weeks after President Trump boasted he had “worked his magic” to lower beef prices, the USDA confirmed that the United States will quadruple imports of Argentine beef — a move that has infuriated ranchers from Texas to Montana.

At the same time, rumors of tariff easing with Brazil sent U.S. cattle futures tumbling yet again, with analysts warning that packers could soon flood the market with foreign product while American ranchers cull herds at a loss.

If all this sounds familiar, it’s because we covered it earlier in our report, “Not Magic: Why Trump’s Argentina and Brazil Deals Hurt Ranchers More Than They Help Consumers.”
The short version: trade deals may shave a few cents off retail prices today, but they centralize control of the beef supply into the hands of the same multinational packers that already dominate the market.

For years, the U.S. has relied on “magic” trade fixes instead of structural reform. Imports go up, ranchers go under, and the herd keeps shrinking.

If America really wants to lower beef prices — and do it in a way that benefits both consumers and producers — we need more than another White House deal or another USDA white paper.

We need deregulation at the state level — the kind that finally frees small ranchers to sell inspected beef directly to the people who want to buy it.

A Shrinking Herd and a Growing Problem

The U.S. cattle herd has fallen to its smallest size since the 1950s. According to the USDA’s January 2025 report, only about 86.7 million head of cattle remain in the country—down more than eight percent from pre-pandemic highs.

Ranch closures, droughts, and processing bottlenecks have driven beef output down and prices up, with consumers paying near-record levels for everything from hamburger to ribeye.

The USDA’s new Beef Industry Plan White Paper aims to fix this with three goals: make it easier to raise cattle, expand processing capacity, and strengthen consumer demand. Yet while the plan is a major step toward stability, a deeper issue remains—regulation at the state and local level continues to choke small producers out of the market.

If Washington truly wants to end the beef shortage, experts say, it’s not enough to fund new plants or open more grazing lands. It must cut the red tape that keeps small farms from selling inspected meat directly to consumers.

What the White Paper Promises

The USDA’s 2025 White Paper outlines an ambitious roadmap:

Reopen 24 million acres of vacant federal grazing allotments through a new USDA–Department of Interior “Grazing Action Plan.”
Cut inspection overtime fees for small processors by up to 75 percent starting in fiscal 2026.
Support new regional plants through grants and loan guarantees under the Meat and Poultry Processing Expansion Program (MPPEP).
Enforce truth in labeling — starting in 2026, only cattle born, raised, and slaughtered in the United States can carry a “Product of USA” mark.

Together, these measures could restore hundreds of thousands of cow-calf pairs to production and add an estimated 135 – 400 million pounds of new retail beef annually within a few years.

But even that won’t solve the fundamental bottleneck: distribution.

The Hidden Barrier: Last-Mile Regulation

Across the country, thousands of small ranchers already raise cattle and use USDA-inspected processors. Their problem isn’t slaughter — it’s sales.

In most states, anyone selling packaged meat—even their own animals processed under inspection—must hold a meat-handler or wholesaler license, maintain on-site cold storage, and submit to regular facility inspections.

Those requirements make sense for warehouses, but not for a family farm that simply picks up sealed, labeled meat at the processor and delivers it to the customer the same day.

The result? Farmers who could legally sell inspected beef under federal law are forced to stop short, unable to afford a $20,000 walk-in freezer or a dedicated building just to satisfy outdated definitions of “storage.”

Deregulation Done Right

A growing coalition of small-farm advocates is urging USDA and the states to modernize these rules. The proposal doesn’t weaken food safety — it simply shifts focus from infrastructure to temperature control and traceability.

Direct-Delivery, No-Storage License:
Sellers who never store meat overnight would follow simple safeguards: sealed packaging, same-day delivery, and a temperature log from processor to customer.
Processor Drop-Ship Exemption:
Allow inspected plants to ship directly to customers under the farm’s label. The farmer never touches the product, eliminating redundant licenses.
Shared Cold Storage:
Let small farms use an existing licensed warehouse instead of building their own.
National Cooler Standards:
Replace patchwork enforcement with a uniform checklist—insulated coolers, thermometers, sanitation supplies, and records.

Such changes wouldn’t require new subsidies or massive construction projects. They would simply let already-inspected beef move freely from plant to plate.

How Much More Beef Could That Unlock?

The United States has roughly 622,000 beef-cow operations, most with fewer than 50 head. If just five percent of them gained the ability to legally sell inspected beef direct-to-consumer—and each marketed an extra five finished animals per year—that would add roughly 155,000 head to the retail supply.

At an average of 500 pounds of retail beef per animal, that’s 77 million additional pounds of beef per year — without breeding a single new cow, simply by letting existing farmers sell what they already produce.

Combine that with the USDA’s grazing expansion and small-plant overtime cuts, and the cumulative effect could reach over half a billion pounds of additional beef annually — a roughly two-percent boost in national supply.

In tight markets, that could make the difference between scarcity and stability.

Food Resiliency Matters

This isn’t just an economic argument — it’s a resiliency plan. COVID-19 proved that when a few major packers control most slaughter capacity, a single shutdown can cripple the food chain.

Allowing thousands of smaller farms to sell directly creates distributed supply, keeping rural economies alive and grocery shelves stocked during disruption.

It also keeps more value on the farm. Direct sales let ranchers earn retail prices instead of wholesale, cushioning them against feed and fuel shocks that drive many out of business.

And for consumers, it means more choices, shorter supply lines, and fresher, locally sourced beef — without sacrificing safety.

A Good Plan That Needs More

The USDA’s Beef Industry Plan lays essential groundwork: more grazing, fair labeling, and investment in regional processing. But it stops short of the simplest and most powerful reform — deregulating the small producer.

Meanwhile, the Argentina import deal risks undoing that progress — flooding the market with cheap foreign beef that enriches large packers while discouraging U.S. herd recovery.

If the goal is to make beef affordable and secure, the solution isn’t more imports or bigger corporations — it’s more Americans producing and selling American beef.

By adopting a nationwide “direct-delivery” standard and eliminating unnecessary licensing barriers, the U.S. could unleash a wave of local beef into the marketplace almost overnight.

In a time when food security has become a national priority, cutting red tape — not cutting tariffs — might be the fastest and most patriotic way to put more steak on America’s table.